Tag Archives: Money Management

Market Update

by Mark Holloway & Paul Stropkay

Stock Yards Bank Wealth Management and Trust

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markApril 3, 2018

Dear Clients and Friends,

We were all spoiled by last year’s 21% return and low volatility in the stock market.  Yesterday’s 458 drop in the Dow was just the most recent of several days with large point declines in the major stock market indices that began with the 1,032 point drop on February 5th.  The market is now down approximately 3.0% year to date.

Market volatility is traumatic for investors who forget that, while stock prices may be erratic, the fundamental value of quality businesses is actually quite stable.  Over time, price and value tend to converge.  Alert investors can take advantage of opportunities that price volatility provides.  We are encouraged by the growth in corporate profits that we are seeing this year and remind ourselves that stock valuations are reasonable in the context of history.

That said, what is causing the wild market swings?  Increasing interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve have added a level of uncertainty.  Late last year, most analysts believed that we should expect two and possibly three increases in rates during 2018.  That expectation is now up to four increases based on the strength of the economy and renewed inflation fears related to full employment.  Full employment generally brings increasing wage pressure and has historically been an omen of future inflation.  Increasing interest rates are a threat to economic activity, increase costs for companies that borrow, and pose competition to stocks for new investment dollars.

Secondly, the drama and political turmoil in Washington has added to uncertainty.  The high rate of turnover in key areas of the Trump advisory team including Secretary of State and Chairman of the Economic Advisors rattled the markets.  The failure of Congress to pass an acceptable budget also added to the feeling of political dysfunction.

The third and most important cause of the recent volatility is the discussion of tariffs.  The Trump administration wants to impose tariffs on imported steel and other products.  Tariffs are essentially taxes on imported goods.  Exporting countries seldom sit by idly and accept these taxes.  They retaliate with tariffs of their own.  Remembering our economic history, tariffs were one of the reasons the great depression was so severe and prolonged.  The global trade war that resulted set back economic growth for a decade.  Fear of slowing global growth resulting from a new trade war has rattled markets.  We can only hope that this is part of the “art of the deal” and that the new administration is trying to force our trading partners back to the negotiation table.

We still believe that we are in a secular bull market for common stocks.  A secular bull market is a market in a general uptrend with higher highs and higher lows in absolute index price levels.  This does not mean that there will not be corrections.  The attached chart shows that stock market declines in secular bull markets of 5%, 10%, or even 20% should be expected.  Larger declines have only happened during recessionary periods.  There are no signs that the economy is heading for a recession in the near future.  In fact, economic growth is accelerating.stock vot.jpg

It is important to keep things in perspective.  The 500 point drop in 1987 represented a 21% decline.  The nearly 500 point drop yesterday was only a 1.9% decline on today’s much higher market level.

Remember, no one can time the market.  It is against human nature and too many consecutive correct decisions must be made very quickly to ever be successful.  It is important to stay invested for those good days that make all the difference in portfolio performance.  As the attached chart shows, many times these bounce-backs happen immediately after days like yesterday.neg days.jpg

We appreciate your continued trust and confidence.

The Wealth Management & Trust Group

Stock Yards Bank & Trust

 


The Wealth Management Group

KATHY THOMPSON, J.D., Senior Executive Vice President, (502) 625-2291
E. GORDON MAYNARD, J.D., Managing Director of Trust, (502) 625-0814
MARK HOLLOWAY, CFA, Chief Investment Officer, (502) 625-9124
SHANNON BUDNICK, CTFA, CFP®, Managing Director of Investments, (502) 625-2513
PAUL STROPKAY, CFA, Chief Investment Strategist, (502) 625-0385

NOT FDIC INSURED | MAY LOSE VALUE | NO BANK GUARANTEE


We provide the information in this newsletter for general guidance only. It does not constitute the provision of legal advice, tax advice, accounting services, investment advice, or professional consulting of any kind. The information provided herein should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional tax, accounting, investment, legal, or other competent advisers. Before making any decision or taking any action, you should consult a professional adviser who has been provided with all pertinent facts relevant to your particular situation. The information is provided “as is,” with no assurance or guarantee of completeness, accuracy, or timeliness of the information, and without warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, including but not limited to warranties of performance, merchantability, and fitness for a particular purpose.
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Market Update

by Mark Holloway & Paul Stropkay

Stock Yards Bank Wealth Management and Trust


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Having enjoyed relative calm in the capital markets, as well as all-time highs across a variety of equity indices during 2017 and into the first month of 2018, many investors were stunned by price volatility in stock and bond markets this afternoon.  While price volatility may feel unsettling, we are aware that secular bull markets are often temporarily interrupted by intermittent downdrafts in market prices.

So, what happened today?  Early reports cite computerized trading as the source of market price volatility.  A more fundamental cause may be that interest rates have risen in recent weeks and offer current yields that investors have not seen in recent memory.  At some level of interest rates, bonds compete with stocks.

Famous value investor Benjamin Graham is attributed with the following quote: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”  As long-term investors, we weigh the wealth-creating power of the companies we have purchased for our clients’ portfolios and welcome investment opportunities that price volatility provides.

As always, we will continue to monitor developments in the economy and in the capital markets with our clients’ portfolios in mind.  Rest assured that our commitment to quality, liquidity, and risk management will not waiver.

Should you have any questions or concerns, please contact your investment officer at Stock Yards.  We always welcome the opportunity to discuss your objectives and to develop an investment portfolio to help you reach your goals.


Wealth Management & Trust

KATHY THOMPSON, Senior Executive Vice President, (502) 625-2291
E. GORDON MAYNARD, Managing Director of Trust, (502) 625-0814
MARK HOLLOWAY, Chief Investment Officer, (502) 625-9124
SHANNON BUDNICK, Managing Director of Investments, (502) 625-2513
PAUL STROPKAY, Chief Investment Strategist, (502) 625-0385

NOT FDIC INSURED | MAY LOSE VALUE | NO BANK GUARANTEE


We provide the information in this newsletter for general guidance only. It does not constitute the provision of legal advice, tax advice, accounting services, investment advice, or professional consulting of any kind. The information provided herein should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional tax, accounting, investment, legal, or other competent advisers. Before making any decision or taking any action, you should consult a professional adviser who has been provided with all pertinent facts relevant to your particular situation. The information is provided “as is,” with no assurance or guarantee of completeness, accuracy, or timeliness of the information, and without warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, including but not limited to warranties of performance, merchantability, and fitness for a particular purpose.

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4 Essential Summer Activities

Looking to get away this summer without going too far? The city of Louisville has several attractions that can keep the whole family entertained. Here are 4 outdoor summer activities you don’t want to skip in Louisville:

  1. The Walking Bridge

This one is a no-brainer. The Walking Bridge is a great outdoor activity with the best views of downtown Louisville. Walk over to Jeffersonville and cool off inside various restaurants and shops.

  1. Nulu

Nulu (New Louisville) is an up-and-coming area in downtown Louisville in the East Market District. There is always something different happening, and summer weekends often involve local fairs, festivals, and flea markets.

  1. The Louisville Zoo

This Louisville classic is a wonderful place to enjoy a beautiful summer day. The Louisville Zoo is a great place for families to get up close and personal with various wild animals. Be sure to cool off at the Zoo’s recent addition of Splash Park.

  1. Falls of the Ohio

Discover the “largest, naturally exposed, Devonian fossil beds in the world” at the banks of the Ohio River. Located in Clarksville, Indiana, this quick trip involves hands-on learning that is sure to excite the family.

5 Important Questions When Choosing Your First Home

Moving into your own place can be exciting and frightening at the same time. Stock Yards Bank & Trust suggests considering the following questions when choosing your own home.

1. How much money do you have saved up?

Start with an evaluation of your financial health. Figure out how much money you have for a down payment or deposit on a rental. Down payments are typically 5 to 20 percent of the price of the home. Security deposits on rentals are usually about one month of rent and more if you have a pet. But be sure to keep enough in savings for an emergency fund. It’s a good idea to have three to six months of living expenses to cover unexpected costs.

2. How much debt do you have?

Consider all of your current and expected financial obligations like your car payment and insurance, credit card debt and student loans. Make sure you will be able to make all the payments in addition to the cost of your new home. Aim to keep total rent or mortgage payments plus utilities to less than 25 to 30 percent of your gross monthly income. Recent regulatory changes limit debt to income (DTI) ratio on most loans to 43 percent.

 3. What is your credit score?

A high credit score indicates strong creditworthiness. Both renters and homebuyers can expect to have their credit history examined. A low credit score can keep you from qualifying for the rental you want or a low interest rate on your mortgage loan. If your credit score is low, you may want to delay moving into a new home and take steps to raise your score. For tips on improving your credit score, visit aba.com/consumers.

4. Have you factored in all the costs? Create a hypothetical budget for your new home.

Find the average cost of utilities in your area, factor in gas, electricity, water and cable. Find out if you will have to pay for parking or trash pickup. Consider the cost of yard maintenance and other basic maintenance costs like replacing the air filter every three months. If you are planning to buy a home, factor in real estate taxes, mortgage insurance and possibly a home owner association fee. Renters should consider the cost of rental insurance.

 5. How long will you stay?

Generally, the longer you plan to live someplace, the more it makes sense to buy. Over time, you can build equity in your home. On the other hand, renters have greater flexibility to move and fewer maintenance costs. Carefully consider your current life and work situation and think about how long you want to stay in your new home.

Stock Yards Bank & Trust offers a wide variety of mortgage services for new and repeat home buyers. Visit our website for more information or contact us at (502) 582-2571. 

 

Resource Information Provided by the American Bankers Association

5 Tips to Spring Clean Your Finances

For many Americans, spring is a time to clean, sort and tidy up around the house.  As you dust your shelves and rid your home of clutter, consider setting aside some time to organize your finances.

“The arrival of spring motivates people to renew their surroundings, and what better way to focus that momentum than to check off everything on your financial to-do list?” asked Corey Carlisle, executive director of the ABA Foundation. “Taking stock of your finances and planting the seeds of new saving habits today will go a long way toward alleviating pressures on your pocket throughout the year.”

The American Bankers Association recommends these five tips to help you refresh your finances:

  • Evaluate and pay down debt. Take a look at how much you owe and what you are paying in interest. If there are better rates available now, consider requesting a lower credit card interest rate or refinancing your mortgage. Begin paying off existing debt, whether that’s by chipping away at loans with the highest interest rates or eliminating smaller debt first.
  • Review your budget. A lot can change in a year. If you’ve been promoted, had a child, or become a new homeowner or renter, be sure to update your budget. Determine what expenses demand the most money and identify areas where you can realistically cut back. Develop a strategy for spending and saving and stick to it.
  • Check your credit report. Every year, you are guaranteed one free credit report from each of the three bureaus. Take advantage of these free reports and check them for any possible errors. Mistakes can drag down your score and prevent you from getting a loan, or cause you to pay a higher than necessary interest rate.
  • Sign up for e-statements, paperless billing and text alerts. Converting to paperless billing will help keep your house—physical and financial—more clean and organized, and will help protect you from fraud.
  • Set up automatic bill pay. By signing up for automatic bill pay, you’ll never have to worry about a missed payment impacting your credit score. You can set it so that money is withdrawn from your checking account on the same day each month.

 

Resource information provided by the American Bankers Association 

Holiday Giving: How to Become a Savvy Charitable Giver

It’s hard to believe there are only 8 days left until Christmas! For many people, it is important to take time during the holiday season to give to those who are in need.  Donating to your favorite cause can be fulfilling, but it’s important to ensure that your gift reaches the intended source. Follow these tips to become a savvy charitable giver this holiday season:

  • Give To an Established Charity
    Unfortunately, there are fraudulent charities that will take advantage of your goodwill.  To avoid this situation, ask for written information about the charity, including name, address and telephone number. A legitimate charity will give you information about their mission, how your donation will be used and proof that your contribution is tax deductible. Find a charity with a proven track record for providing aid.
  • Designate Your Gift
    Some charities allow you to specify exactly where your gift is headed, either to a specific orphanage, to purchase school supplies or to a geographic area in need of relief.  By designating or earmarking your gift, you control where your donation goes and whom it helps.
  • A Proactive Giver is a Smart Giver
    Wise givers don’t give on an impulse or to the first organization that comes along.  Smart givers take time to identify the causes important to them.  Contact a charitable organization, find out their mission and what type of aid and programs they offer.  Work with charities that have targeted outcomes for their giving.
  • Benefits to You
    A donor’s primary motivation may be altruism, but everyone knows there are great tax benefits for those who give. A donation to a qualified organization may entitle you to a charitable contribution deduction.  Remember a contribution to a qualified charity is deductible only in the year in which it is paid, and all charities do not qualify for a charitable contribution deduction.  Always ask for a receipt and save them for tax time.
  • Consider Giving Your Time
    Four out of five charities report using volunteers.  Volunteers are the foundation of many charitable organizations. If you can’t afford to donate money, consider donating your time.  Common volunteer duties include: stuffing envelopes, feeding animals, tutoring, building homes, serving as a museum docent, counseling those in crisis, selling tickets or answering phone calls.

Visit these other sites to find out more on charitable giving:

Resource information provided by the American Bankers Association

8 Money Tips Every College Freshman Should Know

With Labor Day behind us, most colleges are underway with the fall semester. The American Bankers Association encourages college students to get an early start on securing their financial future. Check out these eight tips on how to avoid expenses now and reduce financial burden upon graduation.

  • Create a budget.  You’re an adult now and are responsible for managing your own finances. The first step is to create a realistic budget or plan and stick to it.
  • Watch spending. Keep receipts and track spending in a notebook or a mobile app.  Pace spending and increase saving by cutting unnecessary expenses like eating out or shopping so that your money can last throughout the semester.
  • Use credit wisely. Understand the responsibilities and benefits of credit.  Use it, but don’t abuse it.  How you handle your credit in college could affect you well after graduation.  Shop around for a card that best suits your needs.
  • Lookout for money. There’s a lot of money available for students — you just have to look for it. Apply for scholarships, and look for student discounts or other deals. Many national retailers offer significant discounts for those with a valid student ID.
  • Buy used.  Consider buying used books or ordering them online.  Buying books can become expensive and often used books are in just as good of shape as new ones.  Dedicate some time and research to see what deals you can find.
  • Entertain on a budget. Limit your “hanging out” fund.  There are lots of fun activities to keep you busy in college and many are free for students. Use your meal plan or sample new recipes instead of eating out. If you do go out, take advantage of special offers that occur during the week, like discount movie ticket days or weekly restaurant specials.
  • Expect the unexpected.  Things happen, and it’s important that you are financially prepared when your car or computer breaks down or you have to buy an unexpected ticket home.  You should start putting some money away immediately, no matter how small the amount.
  • Ask. This is a learning experience, so if you need help, ask.  Your parents or your bank are a good place to start, and remember—the sooner the better.

For more tips and resources on a variety of personal finance topics such as mortgages, credit cards, protecting your identity and saving for college, visit aba.com/Consumers.