Tag Archives: Money

Market Update

by Mark Holloway & Paul Stropkay

Stock Yards Bank Wealth Management and Trust

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markApril 3, 2018

Dear Clients and Friends,

We were all spoiled by last year’s 21% return and low volatility in the stock market.  Yesterday’s 458 drop in the Dow was just the most recent of several days with large point declines in the major stock market indices that began with the 1,032 point drop on February 5th.  The market is now down approximately 3.0% year to date.

Market volatility is traumatic for investors who forget that, while stock prices may be erratic, the fundamental value of quality businesses is actually quite stable.  Over time, price and value tend to converge.  Alert investors can take advantage of opportunities that price volatility provides.  We are encouraged by the growth in corporate profits that we are seeing this year and remind ourselves that stock valuations are reasonable in the context of history.

That said, what is causing the wild market swings?  Increasing interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve have added a level of uncertainty.  Late last year, most analysts believed that we should expect two and possibly three increases in rates during 2018.  That expectation is now up to four increases based on the strength of the economy and renewed inflation fears related to full employment.  Full employment generally brings increasing wage pressure and has historically been an omen of future inflation.  Increasing interest rates are a threat to economic activity, increase costs for companies that borrow, and pose competition to stocks for new investment dollars.

Secondly, the drama and political turmoil in Washington has added to uncertainty.  The high rate of turnover in key areas of the Trump advisory team including Secretary of State and Chairman of the Economic Advisors rattled the markets.  The failure of Congress to pass an acceptable budget also added to the feeling of political dysfunction.

The third and most important cause of the recent volatility is the discussion of tariffs.  The Trump administration wants to impose tariffs on imported steel and other products.  Tariffs are essentially taxes on imported goods.  Exporting countries seldom sit by idly and accept these taxes.  They retaliate with tariffs of their own.  Remembering our economic history, tariffs were one of the reasons the great depression was so severe and prolonged.  The global trade war that resulted set back economic growth for a decade.  Fear of slowing global growth resulting from a new trade war has rattled markets.  We can only hope that this is part of the “art of the deal” and that the new administration is trying to force our trading partners back to the negotiation table.

We still believe that we are in a secular bull market for common stocks.  A secular bull market is a market in a general uptrend with higher highs and higher lows in absolute index price levels.  This does not mean that there will not be corrections.  The attached chart shows that stock market declines in secular bull markets of 5%, 10%, or even 20% should be expected.  Larger declines have only happened during recessionary periods.  There are no signs that the economy is heading for a recession in the near future.  In fact, economic growth is accelerating.stock vot.jpg

It is important to keep things in perspective.  The 500 point drop in 1987 represented a 21% decline.  The nearly 500 point drop yesterday was only a 1.9% decline on today’s much higher market level.

Remember, no one can time the market.  It is against human nature and too many consecutive correct decisions must be made very quickly to ever be successful.  It is important to stay invested for those good days that make all the difference in portfolio performance.  As the attached chart shows, many times these bounce-backs happen immediately after days like yesterday.neg days.jpg

We appreciate your continued trust and confidence.

The Wealth Management & Trust Group

Stock Yards Bank & Trust

 


The Wealth Management Group

KATHY THOMPSON, J.D., Senior Executive Vice President, (502) 625-2291
E. GORDON MAYNARD, J.D., Managing Director of Trust, (502) 625-0814
MARK HOLLOWAY, CFA, Chief Investment Officer, (502) 625-9124
SHANNON BUDNICK, CTFA, CFP®, Managing Director of Investments, (502) 625-2513
PAUL STROPKAY, CFA, Chief Investment Strategist, (502) 625-0385

NOT FDIC INSURED | MAY LOSE VALUE | NO BANK GUARANTEE


We provide the information in this newsletter for general guidance only. It does not constitute the provision of legal advice, tax advice, accounting services, investment advice, or professional consulting of any kind. The information provided herein should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional tax, accounting, investment, legal, or other competent advisers. Before making any decision or taking any action, you should consult a professional adviser who has been provided with all pertinent facts relevant to your particular situation. The information is provided “as is,” with no assurance or guarantee of completeness, accuracy, or timeliness of the information, and without warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, including but not limited to warranties of performance, merchantability, and fitness for a particular purpose.
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Market Update

by Mark Holloway & Paul Stropkay

Stock Yards Bank Wealth Management and Trust


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Having enjoyed relative calm in the capital markets, as well as all-time highs across a variety of equity indices during 2017 and into the first month of 2018, many investors were stunned by price volatility in stock and bond markets this afternoon.  While price volatility may feel unsettling, we are aware that secular bull markets are often temporarily interrupted by intermittent downdrafts in market prices.

So, what happened today?  Early reports cite computerized trading as the source of market price volatility.  A more fundamental cause may be that interest rates have risen in recent weeks and offer current yields that investors have not seen in recent memory.  At some level of interest rates, bonds compete with stocks.

Famous value investor Benjamin Graham is attributed with the following quote: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”  As long-term investors, we weigh the wealth-creating power of the companies we have purchased for our clients’ portfolios and welcome investment opportunities that price volatility provides.

As always, we will continue to monitor developments in the economy and in the capital markets with our clients’ portfolios in mind.  Rest assured that our commitment to quality, liquidity, and risk management will not waiver.

Should you have any questions or concerns, please contact your investment officer at Stock Yards.  We always welcome the opportunity to discuss your objectives and to develop an investment portfolio to help you reach your goals.


Wealth Management & Trust

KATHY THOMPSON, Senior Executive Vice President, (502) 625-2291
E. GORDON MAYNARD, Managing Director of Trust, (502) 625-0814
MARK HOLLOWAY, Chief Investment Officer, (502) 625-9124
SHANNON BUDNICK, Managing Director of Investments, (502) 625-2513
PAUL STROPKAY, Chief Investment Strategist, (502) 625-0385

NOT FDIC INSURED | MAY LOSE VALUE | NO BANK GUARANTEE


We provide the information in this newsletter for general guidance only. It does not constitute the provision of legal advice, tax advice, accounting services, investment advice, or professional consulting of any kind. The information provided herein should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional tax, accounting, investment, legal, or other competent advisers. Before making any decision or taking any action, you should consult a professional adviser who has been provided with all pertinent facts relevant to your particular situation. The information is provided “as is,” with no assurance or guarantee of completeness, accuracy, or timeliness of the information, and without warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, including but not limited to warranties of performance, merchantability, and fitness for a particular purpose.

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4 TIPS TO GET FINANCIALLY FIT

The New Year is an ideal time to set new goals, as many vow to become more physically fit or get organized.  The New Year is also a great time to assess your finances, gain control and stick to a new budget or saving plan. Taking control of your personal finances will allow you to save and prepare for unexpected expenses.

Get financially fit this January.  Follow the tips below to get started.

Get Organized Consider treating yourself to a post-holiday gift of a financial organization system.  Alphabetized file folders, or filing systems specifically for financial organization are available in January as people begin to prepare for tax season.  Take advantage and start the New Year with an organizational system.  While you’re getting organized, consider buying a shredder to keep your personal information safe from identity theft.

Create a Budget Track your income and expenses to see how much money you have coming in and how much you spend.  If you have debt, establishing a budget will help you to pay down your debt while saving. Use computer software programs or basic budgeting worksheets to help create your budget.  Include as much information as you can and review your budget regularly.  Print several copies of this budgeting worksheet to help you get started.

  • Identify how you spend your money.
  • Set realistic goals, especially if you plan to cut some of your expenses.
  • Track your spending and review your budget often.
  • Points to consider when cutting debt:

Lower Your Debt Debt from student loans, mortgages and credit cards is nearly unavoidable.  Most families carry about $10,000 in credit card debt.  Spending more money than you bring in can lead to financial stress.  Establish a budget to pay down debts while you save.

  • Pay more than the minimum due and pay on time.
  • Pay off debt with higher interest rates first.
  • Transfer high rate debt to credit cards with a lower interest rate.
  • Use credit cards and loans for purchases that will appreciate in value like a home.

Save for the Unexpected and Beyond Pay yourself first.  Saving is important; it ensures a comfortable future that can endure financial surprises.  No matter how old you are, it’s never too late to begin saving.

  • Save at least 10 percent of your income for retirement.  Enroll in a retirement plan or consider optimizing an established retirement plan.  Contribute at least the maximum amount that your employer will match.  Contributions made to these types of plans are tax deductible.  If your employer does not offer a retirement savings plan, many banks offer Individual Retirement Accounts.  IRAs offer tax-deferred growth, meaning you pay taxes on your investment gains when you make withdrawals.
  • Financial advisors often recommend keeping about three months’ salary in a savings account in case of financial emergencies like hospital bills or loss of job.
  • Increase your contribution as your income increases.
  • If you receive direct deposit at work, ask your employer to send a specific amount to your savings account.  Because the money is put into an account before you have a chance to spend it, automatic savings plans are an easy and convenient way to save.  If your employer doesn’t offer direct deposit, many banks allow for automatic transfers from checking to savings accounts.

Resource information provided by the American Bankers Association

INVESTMENT INSIGHTS

by Joan Schade

Stock Yards Bank Wealth Management & Trust


We all like to plan and dream about how we’ll spend our retirement years. What does your plan look like? Will you travel, play golf, garden, or visit with friends and family? Maybe you’re planning to move, or perhaps you’d simply like to spend some time relaxing and enjoying some well-earned rest. Sometimes, however, unplanned events arise that leave us stunned and thinking, “What just happened?” Fortunately, if we have the right type of insurance in place it can make dealing with the unexpected a whole lot easier.

When you start to plan for your retirement years it is always a good idea to review the insurance you already have in place. Consider if your needs or objectives have changed since you made the original purchase. For example, was your term policy to insure that your children’s education would be covered or that your house would be paid off should something happen to the main bread winner? If your children are grown and there are only a few payments left on the mortgage, your current policy may not be the right type of protection needed at this stage in your life.

Purchasing insurance to provide some income for a surviving spouse is common, but you may also want to look at a long-term care policy. Without the right kind of insurance, you could be forced to use all of your hard-earned savings, including your retirement savings to pay for care. The cost of such needs continues to grow by leaps and bounds. Long Term Care Insurance policy options have grown as well in the last decade. As opposed to the “use it or lose it” options in years past, many policies now offer a wide array of hybrid products that will allow you and/or your spouse to use what you need and pass any remaining dollars on to your beneficiaries tax-free.

Insuring for the right purpose today could protect the quality of your retirement years. Wouldn’t we all like our retirement dreams to come true?

For more information about Investment Plans, please contact our Wealth Management and Trust Department.

 

Homearama Workshop Series

This weekend begins Louisville’s annual home showcase event, Homearama! This highly anticipated event includes tours of custom built homes that are fully furnished, decorated, landscaped and feature the latest in building trends, technology and interior design (via https://bialouisville.com/signature-events/homearama/homearama/).

This year, Homearama takes place July 15-30, 2017 at Poplar Woods. Stock Yards Bank & Trust is excited to sponsor daily workshops as part of the two week event. These workshops are free with Homearama admission and range from landscaping topics to mortgage financing options. There are several to choose from and each workshop last about 30 minutes.

Please join us!

Homearama Workshop Series:

Saturday, July 15 – 11 am: “Outdoor Living/Landscaping” – House 6
Grant Jones, Jones Landscape and Design

Saturday, July 15 – 4 pm: “Technology in the Home” – House 7
Jason Stevenson, Automated Living & Perry Lyons, P.L. Lyons Architectural Builders

Sunday, July 16 – 2 pm: “Green Egg Grilling Demonstration” – House 7
Jim Graven, Steepleton

Monday, July 17; Wednesday, July 19; Friday, July 21 – 7 pm: “Current Design Trends” – House 7
Cherry House Design Specialists

Tuesday, July 18; Thursday, July 20 – 7 pm: “Mortgage Financing Options” – House 7
Melinda Golde, Stock Yards Bank

Saturday, July 22 – 11 am: “Outdoor Living/Landscaping” – House 6
Jeff Wallitsch, Wallitsch Nursery & Garden Center

Saturday, July 22 – 4 pm: “Technology in the Home” – House 7
Jason Stevenson, Automated Living & Perry Lyons, P.L. Lyons Architectural Builders

Sunday, July 23 – 2 pm: “Brownsboro Hardware Outdoor Grilling Demonstration” – House 7
Brownsboro Hardware

Monday, July 24; Wednesday, July 26; Friday, July 28 – 7 pm: “Current Design Trends” – House 7
Cherry House Design Specialists

Tuesday, July 25; Thursday, July 27 – 7 pm: “Mortgage Financing Options” – House 7
Melinda Golde, Stock Yards Bank

Saturday, July 29 – 11 am: “Outdoor Living/Landscaping” – House 6
Grant Jones, Jones Landscape and Design

Saturday, July 29 – 4 pm: “Technology in the Home” – House 7
Jason Stevenson, Automated Living & Perry Lyons, P.L. Lyons Architectural Builders

Sunday, July 30 – 2 pm: “Brownsboro Hardware Outdoor Grilling Demonstration” – House 7
Brownsboro Hardware

Please visit the Homearama website for additional information.

4 Essential Summer Activities

Looking to get away this summer without going too far? The city of Louisville has several attractions that can keep the whole family entertained. Here are 4 outdoor summer activities you don’t want to skip in Louisville:

  1. The Walking Bridge

This one is a no-brainer. The Walking Bridge is a great outdoor activity with the best views of downtown Louisville. Walk over to Jeffersonville and cool off inside various restaurants and shops.

  1. Nulu

Nulu (New Louisville) is an up-and-coming area in downtown Louisville in the East Market District. There is always something different happening, and summer weekends often involve local fairs, festivals, and flea markets.

  1. The Louisville Zoo

This Louisville classic is a wonderful place to enjoy a beautiful summer day. The Louisville Zoo is a great place for families to get up close and personal with various wild animals. Be sure to cool off at the Zoo’s recent addition of Splash Park.

  1. Falls of the Ohio

Discover the “largest, naturally exposed, Devonian fossil beds in the world” at the banks of the Ohio River. Located in Clarksville, Indiana, this quick trip involves hands-on learning that is sure to excite the family.