Tag Archives: Stock Market

Information to Consider about Volatility

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Volatility has dramatically returned to the domestic stock market after a stellar third quarter performance for major market indices.  All of this year’s gains have been erased over the last three weeks.   We realize volatility can be traumatic for investors, and want to reassure you that stock market volatility is normal even in bull markets.  What is causing this sudden increase in volatility?

  • Market volatility began to increase in early October with the increase in interest rates, which we think was driven by Federal Reserve’s guidance. The market believes the Federal Reserve could be too aggressive by increasing interest rates too quickly, and create the next recession.
  • With this increase in interest rates, bond yields are starting to become more and more attractive to investors, causing money to shift from the stock market to the bond market.
  • Many growth stocks are trading at very high valuation levels.  It is not surprising that stocks in some of the more growth oriented industry groups like technology have been the hardest hit as investors are taking profits from these companies.
  • Recent earnings shortfalls from some well-known industrial companies disappointed investors, adding to the selling pressure.

With these new concerns facing the market, in addition to the midterm elections and the ongoing trade dispute with China, we expect volatility to remain in the market, at least in the short-term. What should you as an investor do to deal with this increased volatility?  The answer is very little.  There are several reasons for suggesting that you stay invested in the market.

  • There are very few signs of a recession on the horizon.  Fiscal stimulus and a high level of confidence among businesses and consumers are keeping US growth strong.
  • Pull backs of 5-10% happen frequently in general market cycles, and do not disrupt long-term performance of a diversified portfolio of stocks.
  • We have had 42 days when the stock market has lost 4% or more in a single trading session.  The average one year return after one of these traumatizing one day losses is 21%.
  • No one can time the market.  Riding out these short-term swings and staying invested in the market is the best way to achieve long-term performance goals.
  • The price of the market can be very volatile, but the value of the individual businesses that make up the marketplace is amazingly stable.  Short-term price changes are usually based on emotion.

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From that, we conclude that we are in one of the normal 5%-10% corrections that are generally short-lived and have quick recovery times.  (See attached chart.)

Thank you for the confidence you have placed in Stock Yards Wealth Management and Trust group.  Please call any of the members of our team for a more detailed explanation of our economic and capital markets outlook or our investment process.  We look forward to working with you in the future.

Sincerely,

Stock Yards Bank Wealth Management & Trust Group

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Market Update

by Mark Holloway & Paul Stropkay

Stock Yards Bank Wealth Management and Trust

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markApril 3, 2018

Dear Clients and Friends,

We were all spoiled by last year’s 21% return and low volatility in the stock market.  Yesterday’s 458 drop in the Dow was just the most recent of several days with large point declines in the major stock market indices that began with the 1,032 point drop on February 5th.  The market is now down approximately 3.0% year to date.

Market volatility is traumatic for investors who forget that, while stock prices may be erratic, the fundamental value of quality businesses is actually quite stable.  Over time, price and value tend to converge.  Alert investors can take advantage of opportunities that price volatility provides.  We are encouraged by the growth in corporate profits that we are seeing this year and remind ourselves that stock valuations are reasonable in the context of history.

That said, what is causing the wild market swings?  Increasing interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve have added a level of uncertainty.  Late last year, most analysts believed that we should expect two and possibly three increases in rates during 2018.  That expectation is now up to four increases based on the strength of the economy and renewed inflation fears related to full employment.  Full employment generally brings increasing wage pressure and has historically been an omen of future inflation.  Increasing interest rates are a threat to economic activity, increase costs for companies that borrow, and pose competition to stocks for new investment dollars.

Secondly, the drama and political turmoil in Washington has added to uncertainty.  The high rate of turnover in key areas of the Trump advisory team including Secretary of State and Chairman of the Economic Advisors rattled the markets.  The failure of Congress to pass an acceptable budget also added to the feeling of political dysfunction.

The third and most important cause of the recent volatility is the discussion of tariffs.  The Trump administration wants to impose tariffs on imported steel and other products.  Tariffs are essentially taxes on imported goods.  Exporting countries seldom sit by idly and accept these taxes.  They retaliate with tariffs of their own.  Remembering our economic history, tariffs were one of the reasons the great depression was so severe and prolonged.  The global trade war that resulted set back economic growth for a decade.  Fear of slowing global growth resulting from a new trade war has rattled markets.  We can only hope that this is part of the “art of the deal” and that the new administration is trying to force our trading partners back to the negotiation table.

We still believe that we are in a secular bull market for common stocks.  A secular bull market is a market in a general uptrend with higher highs and higher lows in absolute index price levels.  This does not mean that there will not be corrections.  The attached chart shows that stock market declines in secular bull markets of 5%, 10%, or even 20% should be expected.  Larger declines have only happened during recessionary periods.  There are no signs that the economy is heading for a recession in the near future.  In fact, economic growth is accelerating.stock vot.jpg

It is important to keep things in perspective.  The 500 point drop in 1987 represented a 21% decline.  The nearly 500 point drop yesterday was only a 1.9% decline on today’s much higher market level.

Remember, no one can time the market.  It is against human nature and too many consecutive correct decisions must be made very quickly to ever be successful.  It is important to stay invested for those good days that make all the difference in portfolio performance.  As the attached chart shows, many times these bounce-backs happen immediately after days like yesterday.neg days.jpg

We appreciate your continued trust and confidence.

The Wealth Management & Trust Group

Stock Yards Bank & Trust

 


The Wealth Management Group

KATHY THOMPSON, J.D., Senior Executive Vice President, (502) 625-2291
E. GORDON MAYNARD, J.D., Managing Director of Trust, (502) 625-0814
MARK HOLLOWAY, CFA, Chief Investment Officer, (502) 625-9124
SHANNON BUDNICK, CTFA, CFP®, Managing Director of Investments, (502) 625-2513
PAUL STROPKAY, CFA, Chief Investment Strategist, (502) 625-0385

NOT FDIC INSURED | MAY LOSE VALUE | NO BANK GUARANTEE


We provide the information in this newsletter for general guidance only. It does not constitute the provision of legal advice, tax advice, accounting services, investment advice, or professional consulting of any kind. The information provided herein should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional tax, accounting, investment, legal, or other competent advisers. Before making any decision or taking any action, you should consult a professional adviser who has been provided with all pertinent facts relevant to your particular situation. The information is provided “as is,” with no assurance or guarantee of completeness, accuracy, or timeliness of the information, and without warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, including but not limited to warranties of performance, merchantability, and fitness for a particular purpose.

Market Update

by Mark Holloway & Paul Stropkay

Stock Yards Bank Wealth Management and Trust


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Having enjoyed relative calm in the capital markets, as well as all-time highs across a variety of equity indices during 2017 and into the first month of 2018, many investors were stunned by price volatility in stock and bond markets this afternoon.  While price volatility may feel unsettling, we are aware that secular bull markets are often temporarily interrupted by intermittent downdrafts in market prices.

So, what happened today?  Early reports cite computerized trading as the source of market price volatility.  A more fundamental cause may be that interest rates have risen in recent weeks and offer current yields that investors have not seen in recent memory.  At some level of interest rates, bonds compete with stocks.

Famous value investor Benjamin Graham is attributed with the following quote: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”  As long-term investors, we weigh the wealth-creating power of the companies we have purchased for our clients’ portfolios and welcome investment opportunities that price volatility provides.

As always, we will continue to monitor developments in the economy and in the capital markets with our clients’ portfolios in mind.  Rest assured that our commitment to quality, liquidity, and risk management will not waiver.

Should you have any questions or concerns, please contact your investment officer at Stock Yards.  We always welcome the opportunity to discuss your objectives and to develop an investment portfolio to help you reach your goals.


Wealth Management & Trust

KATHY THOMPSON, Senior Executive Vice President, (502) 625-2291
E. GORDON MAYNARD, Managing Director of Trust, (502) 625-0814
MARK HOLLOWAY, Chief Investment Officer, (502) 625-9124
SHANNON BUDNICK, Managing Director of Investments, (502) 625-2513
PAUL STROPKAY, Chief Investment Strategist, (502) 625-0385

NOT FDIC INSURED | MAY LOSE VALUE | NO BANK GUARANTEE


We provide the information in this newsletter for general guidance only. It does not constitute the provision of legal advice, tax advice, accounting services, investment advice, or professional consulting of any kind. The information provided herein should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional tax, accounting, investment, legal, or other competent advisers. Before making any decision or taking any action, you should consult a professional adviser who has been provided with all pertinent facts relevant to your particular situation. The information is provided “as is,” with no assurance or guarantee of completeness, accuracy, or timeliness of the information, and without warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, including but not limited to warranties of performance, merchantability, and fitness for a particular purpose.

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In The News – Great Britain Leaves European Union

AMark

June 24, 2016

Dear friends and clients,

In a very close vote the citizens of Great Britain voted to formally leave the European Union. Prime Minister David Cameron has resigned and will step down in October after failing to rally support for remaining a part of the EU. Global stock markets are responding negatively and the Euro and Pound are both falling against other currencies. The U. S. stock market responded this morning with a negative opening.

What are the consequences of the vote? There is a real fear that the British vote will be the beginning of the end for the European Union by encouraging other members to leave. This would have negative implications for global trade and further weaken economic growth in both Great Britain and Europe. Markets are being negatively impacted by the uncertainty surrounding the process of leaving the EU. Strategists are also concerned about the impact on the sales and earnings of multinational companies domiciled in the United States and the rest of the world. Many of these companies gained access to European markets through Great Britain and will now be forced to contract separately with Great Britain and the EU. The rising dollar will also impact the earnings of U. S. multinational companies due to currency translation accounting rules.

The worst fears are probably being overstated. Great Britain will more than likely retain preferred trading status with the European Union. It is in the best interest of the EU to negotiate trade agreements without restrictions, penalties, or tariffs so as not to disrupt the fragile economic growth in that region. The strong dollar, stable political and economic environment, and the very low interest rates throughout the Eurozone will encourage capital flows into the United States which will support our capital markets.

What happens next? Prime Minister Cameron will travel to Brussels next week to meet with the other twenty seven member country leaders. They will begin the process of defining the new relationship between the EU and Great Britain politically and economically. His successor will then begin the formal two years of meetings required by law to negotiate Great Britain’s way out of the European Union and to renegotiate trade accords with member countries. European leaders will be focusing on the agreements necessary to regulate future trade between the EU and Great Britain, the access British companies will have to EU markets, and any banking restrictions on banks domiciled in Great Britain. The hope is Great Britain will still have access to the European mainland markets without tariffs or other barriers to trade.

In conclusion, expect continued market volatility. We advise clients to remain invested through these periods of higher than normal uncertainty. We will continue to manage risk in portfolios through the diversification and security selection process. Please contact your wealth advisor with any concerns or questions.

The Wealth Management Group

Louisville
200 South Fifth Street
Louisville, KY 40202
Phone: (502) 625-1005
Email:WealthManagement@syb.com
Indianapolis
11450 N. Meridian Street
Carmel, IN 46032
Phone (317)-238-2816
Email:WealthManagement@syb.com
Cincinnati
101 W. Fourth Street
Cincinnati, OH 45202
Phone: (513)-824-6146
Email:WealthManagement@syb.com

We provide the information in this newsletter for general guidance only. It does not constitute the provision of legal advice, tax advice, accounting services, investment advice, or professional consulting of any kind. The information provided herein should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional tax, accounting, investment, legal, or other competent advisers. Before making any decision or taking any action, you should consult a professional adviser who has been provided with all pertinent facts relevant to your particular situation. The information is provided “as is,” with no assurance or guarantee of completeness, accuracy, or timeliness of the information, and without warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, including but not limited to warranties of performance, merchantability, and fitness for a particular purpose.

NOT FDIC INSURED | MAY LOSE VALUE | NO BANK GUARANTEE